Probability of introducing porcine epidemic diarrhea virus into Danish pig herds by imported spray-dried porcine plasma

Table 1 Alternative scenario analysis. Annual probability (PPlasma) of PEDV introduction into the Danish pig population

Simulation scenario^a	5^th Percentile	Median	Years^b	95^th Percentile
Scenario I (reference)	0.003 %	0.2 %	500	2.6 %
Scenario II (PSurvDry = RiskUniform [(0; RiskUniform (5.5 %; 60 %)]	0.06 %	4.7 %	21	57.4 %
Scenario III (Rations* 2)	0.0055 %	0.40 %	250	5.28 %
Scenario IV (PInf* 2)	0.0056 %	0.37 %	270	5.30 %

^a, PSurvDry = probability that PEDV survives to the spray drying according to Sampedro et al. [20] and assuming probability of virus survival during storage 100 %; Rations = annual number of individual SDPP doses used in Denmark, PInf = probability that a naïve piglet fed with SDPP, where viable PEDV is present in traces, becomes infected
^bIn the column “years” we report how often at least one introduction of PEDV into the Danish pig population could be expected, according to the estimated median PPlasma

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