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Table 4 Surveillance sensitivity, time to detection and costs for alternative surveillance scenarios for SD and PAR

From: Evaluating the surveillance for swine dysentery and progressive atrophic rhinitis in closed multiplier herds using scenario tree modelling

  ToSe TD (months) Costs per farm and year CHF (≈ EUR)
Median 90 % CI best case worst case mean  
SD       
Current surveillance (for comparison) 96.7 89.8–99.2 2.3 6.4 4.4 1022.20
No MF  95.1 85.4–98.8 3.3 6.1  4.7 778.35
No AS 60.5 33.5–78.8 11.6 13 12.3 500.20
2x10 samples no MF 99.6 96.7–99.97 2 4.4 3.2 1078.35
4x6 samples no MF 99.8 97.4–99.99 2.4 2.4 2.4 1199.55
PAR       
Current surveillance (for comparison) 99.4 95.1–99.9 1.8 4.4 3.1 842.20
No MF 98.0 87.7–99.9 2.7 5 3.85 638.35
No AS 80.9 65.4–91.2 6.9 8.6 7.75 420.20
2x16 samples no MF 99.7 95.5–100.0 1.9 4.3 3.1 758.35
4x6 samples no MF 98.5 88.0–99.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 699.55
  1. (SD = swine dysentery; PAR = progressive atrophic rhinitis; ToSe = total surveillance sensitivity; CI = confidence interval; MF = monitored fattening group; AS = active sampling; ToSe = total sensitivity; TD = time to detection; no extra value in EUR given due to marginal difference to CHF at the time of publication (07.05.2015: 1.037 CHF = 1 EUR))