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Table 4 Surveillance sensitivity, time to detection and costs for alternative surveillance scenarios for SD and PAR

From: Evaluating the surveillance for swine dysentery and progressive atrophic rhinitis in closed multiplier herds using scenario tree modelling

 

ToSe

TD (months)

Costs per farm and year CHF (≈ EUR)

Median

90 % CI

best case

worst case

mean

 

SD

      

Current surveillance (for comparison)

96.7

89.8–99.2

2.3

6.4

4.4

1022.20

No MF 

95.1

85.4–98.8

3.3

6.1 

4.7

778.35

No AS

60.5

33.5–78.8

11.6

13

12.3

500.20

2x10 samples no MF

99.6

96.7–99.97

2

4.4

3.2

1078.35

4x6 samples no MF

99.8

97.4–99.99

2.4

2.4

2.4

1199.55

PAR

      

Current surveillance (for comparison)

99.4

95.1–99.9

1.8

4.4

3.1

842.20

No MF

98.0

87.7–99.9

2.7

5

3.85

638.35

No AS

80.9

65.4–91.2

6.9

8.6

7.75

420.20

2x16 samples no MF

99.7

95.5–100.0

1.9

4.3

3.1

758.35

4x6 samples no MF

98.5

88.0–99.9

3.2

3.2

3.2

699.55

  1. (SD = swine dysentery; PAR = progressive atrophic rhinitis; ToSe = total surveillance sensitivity; CI = confidence interval; MF = monitored fattening group; AS = active sampling; ToSe = total sensitivity; TD = time to detection; no extra value in EUR given due to marginal difference to CHF at the time of publication (07.05.2015: 1.037 CHF = 1 EUR))