|
Simulation scenarioa
|
5th Percentile
|
Median
|
Yearsb
|
95th Percentile
|
|---|
|
Scenario I (reference)
|
0.003 %
|
0.2 %
|
500
|
2.6 %
|
|
Scenario II (PSurvDry = RiskUniform [(0; RiskUniform (5.5 %; 60 %)]
|
0.06 %
|
4.7 %
|
21
|
57.4 %
|
|
Scenario III (Rations* 2)
|
0.0055 %
|
0.40 %
|
250
|
5.28 %
|
|
Scenario IV (PInf* 2)
|
0.0056 %
|
0.37 %
|
270
|
5.30 %
|
-
a,
PSurvDry = probability that PEDV survives to the spray drying according to Sampedro et al. [20] and assuming probability of virus survival during storage 100 %; Rations = annual number of individual SDPP doses used in Denmark, PInf = probability that a naïve piglet fed with SDPP, where viable PEDV is present in traces, becomes infected
-
bIn the column “years” we report how often at least one introduction of PEDV into the Danish pig population could be expected, according to the estimated median PPlasma
