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Table 1 Alternative scenario analysis. Annual probability (PPlasma) of PEDV introduction into the Danish pig population

From: Probability of introducing porcine epidemic diarrhea virus into Danish pig herds by imported spray-dried porcine plasma

Simulation scenarioa 5th Percentile Median Yearsb 95th Percentile
Scenario I (reference) 0.003 % 0.2 % 500 2.6 %
Scenario II (PSurvDry = RiskUniform [(0; RiskUniform (5.5 %; 60 %)] 0.06 % 4.7 % 21 57.4 %
Scenario III (Rations* 2) 0.0055 % 0.40 % 250 5.28 %
Scenario IV (PInf* 2) 0.0056 % 0.37 % 270 5.30 %
  1. a, PSurvDry = probability that PEDV survives to the spray drying according to Sampedro et al. [20] and assuming probability of virus survival during storage 100 %; Rations = annual number of individual SDPP doses used in Denmark, PInf = probability that a naïve piglet fed with SDPP, where viable PEDV is present in traces, becomes infected
  2. bIn the column “years” we report how often at least one introduction of PEDV into the Danish pig population could be expected, according to the estimated median PPlasma