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Table 1 Model parameters including their values/distributions and sources of information

From: Evaluating the surveillance for swine dysentery and progressive atrophic rhinitis in closed multiplier herds using scenario tree modelling

Parameter Description Values (min.; most likely; max.) Source
   SD PAR SD PAR
CS Probability of clinical signs in one or more animals in an infected closed multiplier herd 0.01;0.2;0.5 0.1;0.2;0.4 expert poll [8], expert poll
FcV Probability that a closed multiplier farmer informs vet./PHS about clinical signs 0.5;0.75; 0.9 0.45;0.7; 0.9 expert poll
VcS Probability that veterinarian takes samples for laboratory examination 0.5;0.9;1 expert poll
Intrapr Intra-herd prevalence (herd with clinical signs) 0.3;0.6;0.9 0.05;0.15;0.4 expert poll [8]
Intraprnoc Intra-herd prevalence (no clinical signs) 0.1;0.25;0.5 - expert poll [8]
TsensPCR Probability that test classifies a true positive sample as positive (PCR after culture) 0.62;0.73;0.83 0.85;0.85;1 [16] [17]
TspecPCR Probability that test classifies a true negative sample as negative (PCR after culture) 0.91;0.97;1 0.98;0.99;1 [16] pers. comm. G. Schüpbach
CSMF Probability that pigs show clinical signs during MF with infected animals 0.05;0.125;0.4 0.2;0.5;0.7 expert poll
MFFiV Probability that MF farmer informs PHS about signs 0.27;0.6;0.75 0.3;0.5;0.78 expert poll
AnAS Number of animals sampled via active sampling (per visit) 4 / 6 (4;10)* 10 (4;10)* [5]
NAS Number of visits with active sampling 2 (2;4)* [5]
NCLINPHS Number of visits with clinical examination 2 (2;4)* [5]
NMF Number of MF with telephone check 3 (1;4)* [5]
NMFPHS Number of MF with on-farm examination 1 (1;4)* [5]
AnSUS Number of animals sampled in the case of suspicion 20 (10;25)* [5]
  1. (SD = swine dysentery; PAR = progressive atrophic rhinitis; MF = monitored fattening group; * = parameters with fixed values in the regular model and with uniform distributions (ranges indicated in brackets) for sensitivity analysis only)