Table 1 Model parameters including their values/distributions and sources of information
Parameter | Description | Values (min.; most likely; max.) | Source | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SD | PAR | SD | PAR | ||
CS | Probability of clinical signs in one or more animals in an infected closed multiplier herd | 0.01;0.2;0.5 | 0.1;0.2;0.4 | expert poll | [8], expert poll |
FcV | Probability that a closed multiplier farmer informs vet./PHS about clinical signs | 0.5;0.75; 0.9 | 0.45;0.7; 0.9 | expert poll | |
VcS | Probability that veterinarian takes samples for laboratory examination | 0.5;0.9;1 | expert poll | ||
Intrapr | Intra-herd prevalence (herd with clinical signs) | 0.3;0.6;0.9 | 0.05;0.15;0.4 | expert poll | [8] |
Intraprnoc | Intra-herd prevalence (no clinical signs) | 0.1;0.25;0.5 | - | expert poll | [8] |
TsensPCR | Probability that test classifies a true positive sample as positive (PCR after culture) | 0.62;0.73;0.83 | 0.85;0.85;1 | [16] | [17] |
TspecPCR | Probability that test classifies a true negative sample as negative (PCR after culture) | 0.91;0.97;1 | 0.98;0.99;1 | [16] | pers. comm. G. Schüpbach |
CSMF | Probability that pigs show clinical signs during MF with infected animals | 0.05;0.125;0.4 | 0.2;0.5;0.7 | expert poll | |
MFFiV | Probability that MF farmer informs PHS about signs | 0.27;0.6;0.75 | 0.3;0.5;0.78 | expert poll | |
AnAS | Number of animals sampled via active sampling (per visit) | 4 / 6 (4;10)* | 10 (4;10)* | [5] | |
NAS | Number of visits with active sampling | 2 (2;4)* | [5] | ||
NCLINPHS | Number of visits with clinical examination | 2 (2;4)* | [5] | ||
NMF | Number of MF with telephone check | 3 (1;4)* | [5] | ||
NMFPHS | Number of MF with on-farm examination | 1 (1;4)* | [5] | ||
AnSUS | Number of animals sampled in the case of suspicion | 20 (10;25)* | [5] | ||